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| Realistically, Success of NatAmi? | page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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Thierry Atheist
Canada
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Posts 1830
15 May 2011 23:18
| You folks all know how excited and gung ho for this project I am already. You've seen my exaggerated possibilities of sales of the NatAmi, but let's talk realistically. Seems to be more and more talk of NatAmi everywhere. So, how many do you think they'll sell in the first year? And the next few,... will sales be higher or lower then? Will you be doing things to try and get more sold?
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Alan Haynes
Australia
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Posts 74
16 May 2011 00:27
| Thierry Atheist wrote:
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You folks all know how excited and gung ho for this project I am already.
You've seen my exaggerated possibilities of sales of the NatAmi, but let's talk realistically. Seems to be more and more talk of NatAmi everywhere.
So, how many do you think they'll sell in the first year?
And the next few,... will sales be higher or lower then?
Will you be doing things to try and get more sold?
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Thierry
I think once the board is available in whatever form that it will do a couple of thousand in the first 12 months. I would love to be able to say it will do 100,000 but to be realistic we must first look at all the facts.
How many people post on this site?
I am not sure and there seems to have been an increase since the MX board arrived.
How many people owned an Amiga originally?
I think I read years ago that there were a few more than 3 million Amigas sold. How many of them went to people who had more than 1 Amiga?
How many people still use an Amiga?
I have no idea but I believe it is not many; perhaps less than a thousand and it is no good counting the real die hard's because there are probably only a couple of hundred left.
How many copies of Amiga Forever have Cloanto sold?
That may be an indicator of the number that possibly would buy a new Natami. Cloanto could tell us if they really wanted to but remember the Natami is in many ways competition to them. I personally have 3 copies of Amiga Forever but when I get my Natami I doubt very much I would get a newer version of Amiga Forever as the Natami will do all plus more than Amiga Forever.
Let us suppose that for arguments sake there were 2 million Amiga users around about 1992. As the Natami will probably not be commercially available till about 2012 then we are looking at the decline in users over a 20 year period. If we take about 3% per year which I think is probably conservative then how many do we have left after 20 years? I will let you do the maths.
I believe there are many who will come back and hope the numbers are in the 10's of thousand I think a couple of thousand in the first year will be great. Remember that Bill's Macrohard has had such an influence on the world that many will need something absolutely awesome to make them change. Even with that it will still be difficult; just look at the experience of Macrohard with Win Millenium and Vista. The simple fact is most people like stability and usually don't like change even if it is better. The question will be asked; How much better is it?Cheers from OZ
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Jakob Eriksson
Sweden
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Posts 1097
16 May 2011 09:06
| On the other hand our goal is not to replace Windows or Linux. Remember, even "back then" many used a PC with DOS and an Amiga. Computers were new and expensive then, so often it seemed frivolous to own both a PC and an Amiga, but often a PC was used at work, and an Amiga at home. But many who could afford got both a PC and an Amiga to do different things. Back when I used an Amiga as my main computer, I still had an 8088 PC with only floppy drives to do some stuff. With todays situation, with an adequate PC available often for free, the situation is such, that competing head-to-head with PCs is not only very hard, but actually undesirable. If I would identify a natural enemy of the Natami, it *might* be the desktop PC, competing for (real) desktop space in the home office. But the Natami is so small, it could easily share monitor with a PC and be no more intrusive in the home office than say, a DSL modem or wireless router. The Natami is also small enough to hide behind a wall mounted TV. Again, not the typical place for a Windows PC. I think there is room for Natami without the need to push something else away.
The indirect push will be, that people will find they spend more time using their Natami than their other platforms. :-) I also expect many who were barely born when Commodore died, to buy a Natami. Why? While current offerings of PCs and consoles are in many ways great, something fun was lost in the hunt for newest graphics card. People are looking at "retro" games and platforms mainly for two reasons - nostalgia and then that innocent, fun quality. Natami preserves the fun, while breaking new ground!
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Ralph Ewers
Germany
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Posts 42
16 May 2011 11:54
| I don't think Natami will come close to thousands of sold boards. Maybe a few hundred at best to some geeks and retro fans.
IMO the problem is complex, but i'll try to give my point of view in a (bigger) nutshell:
WindowsPC is not the only competition! For a small computer to go behind a flat screen TV i would see the Mac mini as main competitor. Natami won't be a bargain due to small production numbers - and coming closer to the price of a Mac mini, people will take a closer look at hardware power as well as available software. Natami would lose the comparison against the Mac mini even in its current outdated Core2Duo incarnation.
Amiga software currently is not up to date by any means when it comes to the HTPC area (TV, internet browsing, movies on DVD or BluRay). And in order to make use of the advanced Natami features (to equal the missing hardware power) new software is needed in that area (is anything programmed yet? Don't know, but would guess that the answer is "No").
Natami won't be able to really compete in the game area as well, as that is sheer graphic (i.e. hardware) power these days. Maybe Natami could set a (small) revival trend with retro gaming (e.g. platform games), but the potential target group is probably tiny if the games don't look really impressive or offer some special features not yet seen elsewhere (e.g. eyetracking and automatically changing game perspective). The latter would guarantee media attention and thus inform the world about Natami, which would be crucial for a bigger success.
Regarding the office area: Cheapest Windows PCs can do the job pretty professionally (OpenOffice, Microsoft Office) and are "compatible". Amiga / Natami has no such thing to offer. Office packages are antique and no real competition.
So what's with the nerd/freak/tinker faction? They are happy doing hackintoshes, being knee-deep into Linux or finetuning their windows boxes. Why should they get a Natami? There is no special hardware in Natami which could offer a thrill. At least not big enough to make them come in droves.
What about the embedded market (TV set top boxes etc.) then? That area is 95% price-driven. With small production runs the Natami will be far too expensive to be considered in the first place (not to mention existing software solutions for other OS platforms).
I could go on and list other possible uses, but i really can't see any viable market niche the Natami would fit into, except the couple of Amiga die-hards and adventurers seeking for "simply something different" (after Apple and Linux have become mainstream).
Could the Natami be made to fit in some niche somehow? Surely - but the computer market has massively evolved since the Amiga hit the shelves more than 25 years ago. Today you would be hard pressed to find venture capital for founding a company to distribute the board (considering that Natami has no real advantages to offer over its alternatives) - and without having a company you would never be able to sell tens of thousands of boards (let alone to produce them in the first place).
It may be possible to find a business partner with an existing infrastructure in place who could produce and distribute the boards and also take care of warranty issues. But they would require to have some unique features on the Natami to take the risk of investing millions of Euro or Dollar upfront.
The original Amiga was a success because it offered features of high-end workstations for a fraction of their price. And it was very lucky that some things fell in place as they did (like the takeover by Commodore). Other similarly ambitious projects were already a few steps ahead of where Natami is today, but eventually failed miserably (think of e.g. BeBox).
So - being realistic, the Natami is a remarkable hobby project. But without leaving the hobby status it will barely exceed a few hundred sold boards if at all (and even that would require pre-pay by potential customers to finance the material and production cost).
My apologies for sounding so negative, but that is my evaluation of market mechanisms and assessment of Natami's prospects in the existing market environment, based on my professional knowledge and the information i have not being a team member. Maybe the team has a detailed business plan ready and there are already negotiations going on in the back, i don't know. Would love to have a viable alternative to Apple/Windows/Linux, but don't see that currently.
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Ralph Ewers
Germany
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Posts 42
16 May 2011 12:11
| Jakob Eriksson wrote:
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On the other hand our goal is not to replace Windows or Linux. Remember, even "back then" many used a PC with DOS and an Amiga.
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Can you describe your actual goal in detail then?Jakob Eriksson wrote:
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If I would identify a natural enemy of the Natami, it *might* be the desktop PC, competing for (real) desktop space in the home office. But the Natami is so small, it could easily share monitor with a PC and be no more intrusive in the home office than say, a DSL modem or wireless router.
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Natural enemies are time and money imo. Why should anyone start to get used to a "new" platform if there is no real use from it (when compared to the huge number of alternatives available on the market)? A few teenagers may want to tinker, but that won't bring Natami high sales numbers.Jakob Eriksson wrote:
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The Natami is also small enough to hide behind a wall mounted TV. Again, not the typical place for a Windows PC.
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Missing software. And Mac mini being the main comparison rather than a Windows PC.
Jakob Eriksson wrote:
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I think there is room for Natami without the need to push something else away.
The indirect push will be, that people will find they spend more time using their Natami than their other platforms. :-)
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Wishful thinking! Why should people spend more time on an inferior platform with lots of software missing? Or spend money on such a platform in the first place? Again - not talking about a few tinkerers here... Jakob Eriksson wrote:
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I also expect many who were barely born when Commodore died, to buy a Natami. Why? While current offerings of PCs and consoles are in many ways great, something fun was lost in the hunt for newest graphics card. People are looking at "retro" games and platforms mainly for two reasons - nostalgia and then that innocent, fun quality.
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How many people do you think would fit your description? Some people might look at the things you mentioned, but at the same time the vast majority would not want to sacrifice comfortable solutions they are used to (like up-to-date internet browsers and office packages) without one or two really rewarding features not to be found elsewhere. In my opinion "nostalgia and then that innocent, fun quality" does not fit that bill!
Jakob Eriksson wrote:
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Natami preserves the fun, while breaking new ground!
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Wishful thinking! Exactly where do you think Natami does "break new ground"?
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Nikolaj Sofus Larsen
Denmark
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Posts 11
16 May 2011 12:11
| I would say it depends a lot on the price.
I myself can't afford to spend that much on it.
Realistically i could put down up to 300 euros.
if it get much higher then that, i think that salles will be limited to the hardcore amiga fans.
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Ralph Ewers
Germany
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Posts 42
16 May 2011 12:23
| Nikolaj Sofus Larsen wrote:
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Realistically i could put down up to 300 euros.
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Is that for the board only (so you have to shell out another 100+ Euro for housing etc.) or for a complete box?
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Russell Williams
United Kingdom
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Posts 11
16 May 2011 12:24
| I agree with the price issue, but the price will always be fairly high due to the quantities made. One thing I would really like to persuade the Natami team to do to create a bigger Market is to present the product as a full Consumer product e.g Boxed in official packaging with an OS pre installed, the motherboard fitted inside an official case and supplied with a PSU, which to be fair someone has already made a case that will do the job. Also should be shipped with a demo disc or better still at least one Program/Game, again offically labeled etc.. A user manual or at least a quick start guide. These details may not seem important to you guys, I want to get my hands on a NATAMI just as urgently as the rest of you but to make this a viable product that other companies would be willing to add to there stock it needs to be presented in that format not just a motherboard. I know this will increase the cost overall but not massivly and it would make the product far far more viable for general sale. If we want to get the average Jo Bloggs who owned an amiga years ago to buy it needs to be a complete product. Sorry for going on for so long!
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Gunnar von Boehn
Germany
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Posts 5775
16 May 2011 12:38
| The goal of the NATAMI is to bring the AMIGA classic back.
The customer base for the NATAMI are AMIGA classic fans.
Based on this, I expect a user base of a couple hundred now.
How much momentum the AMIGA classic fans will be able to later create, based on this platform - This needs to observed.
Of course we are hoping for something here.
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Nikolaj Sofus Larsen
Denmark
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Posts 11
16 May 2011 13:05
| Also, how could it be marketed?
If you post on ebay are you then legally allowed to mention amiga, or does this break some copyright issues.If it is to reach a broader audience, it would need to be posted outside a few fansites.
I would think that getting it on ebay and have amiga somehow in the headline would achive this.
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Died In Natami Flamewar
United Kingdom
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Posts 92/ 1
16 May 2011 13:26
| I think another fpga implementation will sell more since it will be cheaper (ie around 230 240 euros including postage for EU hopefully) but has Natami police will likely delete my post anyways, I wont say any more. If you want to know what on about try google minimig aga or something like that.
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Geir E
Norway
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Posts 104
16 May 2011 13:39
| Matthew Simon William La wrote:
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I think another fpga implementation will sell more since it will be cheaper (ie around 230 240 euros including postage for EU hopefully) but has Natami police will likely delete my post anyways, I wont say any more. If you want to know what on about try google minimig aga or something like that.
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Your completly missing the point. Of course it will be cheaper, Those your thinking of is lesser products. Waaay slower processor and none of the upgrades. It's like saying the Kia c'eed is cheaper than the Bmw m3.
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Joe M
Norway
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Posts 500
16 May 2011 14:27
| Russell Williams wrote:
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I agree with the price issue, but the price will always be fairly high due to the quantities made. One thing I would really like to persuade the Natami team to do to create a bigger Market is to present the product as a full Consumer product e.g Boxed in official packaging with an OS pre installed, the motherboard fitted inside an official case and supplied with a PSU, which to be fair someone has already made a case that will do the job. Also should be shipped with a demo disc or better still at least one Program/Game, again offically labeled etc.. A user manual or at least a quick start guide. These details may not seem important to you guys, I want to get my hands on a NATAMI just as urgently as the rest of you but to make this a viable product that other companies would be willing to add to there stock it needs to be presented in that format not just a motherboard. I know this will increase the cost overall but not massivly and it would make the product far far more viable for general sale. If we want to get the average Jo Bloggs who owned an amiga years ago to buy it needs to be a complete product. Sorry for going on for so long!
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Good points! This is definitely the way to go if one wants to sell as many units as possible. Such a strategy will lead old Amiga users back into the camps as well as new ones. The Natami must stand out from the crowd also on the outside - not only from the inside. I suggest the Natami boards to be put into cases similar to the original A500/A1200 cases (I assume Loriano could help with the design here?). This will give people the ultimate Amiga/retro feeling right from the start. Such a solution will also get the press to show a certain enthusiasm, which means lots of free publicity.I believe Commodore USA has some good ideas regarding the design and presentation of their products. The Natami should be presented in a similar manner. When you buy a car you don't only buy the engine - you buy the complete thing. :)
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Ralph Ewers
Germany
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Posts 42
16 May 2011 14:45
| Gunnar von Boehn wrote:
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The goal of the NATAMI is to bring the AMIGA classic back.
The customer base for the NATAMI are AMIGA classic fans.
Based on this, I expect a user base of a couple hundred now.
How much momentum the AMIGA classic fans will be able to later create, based on this platform.
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Gunnar - thanks for that concrete and realistic statement (can i consider this the official stance of the Natami team?). Even those "couple hundred" will be a challenge for a hobby project, so i'm wishing you good luck!
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Died In Natami Flamewar
United Kingdom
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Posts 92/ 1
16 May 2011 15:15
| A fully boxed product maybe possible when aros has completely reversed engineered all the required kickstarts and os they need too then improve everything.
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Jakob Eriksson
Sweden
| | (Moderator)
Posts 1097
16 May 2011 16:37
| Ralph Ewers wrote:
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Gunnar von Boehn wrote:
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Based on this, I expect a user base of a couple hundred now.
How much momentum the AMIGA classic fans will be able to later create, based on this platform.
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Gunnar - thanks for that concrete and realistic statement (can i consider this the official stance of the Natami team?). Even those "couple hundred" will be a challenge for a hobby project, so i'm wishing you good luck!
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As far as official stances of the Natami team go, Gunnars opinion is a very good approximation. :-) As for the wishful thinking part - well, maybe - but a dream has to start somewhere. As for innovating - I think Natami is a beautifully balanced machine, much like how A1000 was once upon a time. There are no glaring bottlenecks.
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Dr Strangelove
Norway
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Posts 1
16 May 2011 18:07
| Jakob Eriksson wrote:
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Ralph Ewers wrote:
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Gunnar von Boehn wrote:
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Based on this, I expect a user base of a couple hundred now.
How much momentum the AMIGA classic fans will be able to later create, based on this platform.
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Gunnar - thanks for that concrete and realistic statement (can i consider this the official stance of the Natami team?). Even those "couple hundred" will be a challenge for a hobby project, so i'm wishing you good luck!
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As far as official stances of the Natami team go, Gunnars opinion is a very good approximation. :-)
As for the wishful thinking part - well, maybe - but a dream has to start somewhere. As for innovating - I think Natami is a beautifully balanced machine, much like how A1000 was once upon a time. There are no glaring bottlenecks.
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Hi all.
- I've been following this forum for quite a while, this is my first post though.
The natami sounds really amazing, fantastic job you guys!But as I understand, the hardware is not limited to the amiga, is it?
If the same hardware could be used for running f.i. a PDP then it would be useful for a much larger crowd.
I'd be interested to hear an opinion from the team on what systems could run on natami hardware, and how much effort it would take. Thanks for all you hard wok guys! :D
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Thierry Atheist
Canada
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Posts 1830
16 May 2011 18:24
| So, whether it's a bare board or in a case like Loriano's, the numbers are between 250 and 600 in 365 days of the first person receiving a bought NatAmi? Think that's realistic? At the low end that's nearly one a day and at the high, nearly 2.... That's pretty good, huh? How about opinions on the second 365 days. Do you think the amount sold would go up, flat line, or go down? Keep in mind, people HAVE to find a replacement for their old Amigas and buying used ones is almost as expensive, but really more so than what you get in the "entire package" where the NatAmi's concerned. NatAmi is what, 5 or 6 separate components* AND there is NO equivalent CPU that even comes CLOSE to it available. It REALLY IS good value for money. This is why I think that NatAmi will be a HUGE success. * Memory expansion board (and memory), accelerator, FPU, hard drive controller, Ethernet port, USB, FlashRam (flashrom?), PCI slot, SAGA (who needs the Megachip chip ram to 2 Megs?), and it's NEW.
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Died In Natami Flamewar
United Kingdom
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Posts 92/ 1
16 May 2011 18:25
| I think Natami are locking there baby down only firmwares they allow will be able to run on it.
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Died In Natami Flamewar
United Kingdom
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Posts 92/ 1
16 May 2011 18:31
| How do you know its good value for money? If there are no recommended prices and if your lucky person bought via being a team member they are discounted prices. The consumer version will be more expensive. So they can reinvest in natami for New Versions/revisions of Natami firmwares and new hardware.
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