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ASIC Prices Skyrocket
Chuck T
USA

Posts 678
19 Apr 2012 16:33


FPGAs have always been expensive, whether in a small scale (handfuls of dollars for low-end parts) to astronomical - one can get a nice car for less than the cost of high-end device. Literally. So they’ve occupied markets that can tolerate a bit, or a lot, more money in exchange for the convenience of programmability. The conventional thinking has always held that for high volume applications one uses an ASIC.
 
  That thinking is now obsolete.
 
  ASICs have long been natural choices for high-volume products. But as process geometries shrink the design costs have skyrocketed. One analysis claims that at 28 nm only products that ship billions of units can profitably use an ASIC.
 
   
     
      EXTERNAL LINK

Megol .

Posts 680
19 Apr 2012 17:15


Chuck T wrote:

  FPGAs have always been expensive, whether in a small scale (handfuls of dollars for low-end parts) to astronomical - one can get a nice car for less than the cost of high-end device. Literally. So they’ve occupied markets that can tolerate a bit, or a lot, more money in exchange for the convenience of programmability. The conventional thinking has always held that for high volume applications one uses an ASIC.
   
    That thinking is now obsolete.
   
 
   
     
      ASICs have long been natural choices for high-volume products. But as process geometries shrink the design costs have skyrocketed. One analysis claims that at 28 nm only products that ship billions of units can profitably use an ASIC.
     
     
      EXTERNAL LINK 

 
  There are plenty high volume products using FPGAs already. There are a number of FPGA vendors providing chips designed for low cost, low power semi-advanced silicon "glue".
 
  While the article is correct in a way many ASICs can already be implemented in cheap processes like 130nm, 90nm or 65nm. The leading edge is an option only for very high volumes or very high performance.
  Hard cores (PPC, ARM) have been available earlier but was removed due to low interest...

Nixus Minimax
Germany

Posts 273
19 Apr 2012 17:54


Chuck T wrote:
But as process geometries shrink the design costs have skyrocketed.

Well, with shrinking process geometries you can fit more chips on a wafer and thus produce the same number of chips with less wafer starts, i.e. faster and cheaper. There are two effects having opposite directions but yes, it seems that the process costs go up faster than the savings.

While this has been predicted for a long time, process development might indeed come to an end (or rather approach an upper limit in an asymptotic manner). Beyond 10 nm I can hardly see how you could get any devices to work that follow the principles of transistors as we have known them through the last decades. But that has been said many times before. However, these past false predictions do not generally prejudice newer ones. After all, the diameter of an atom does give a hard boundary. And since we don't want our transistors to randomly diffuse away at temperatures above 0 Kelvin, we will need at least several atoms. Gates of common MOS transistors are about 2 nm and hence only a few atomic layers thick. Perhaps less than 10 nm channel length will be possible, but then there really is hardly anything more to shrink...


Claudio Wieland
Germany
(Natami Team)
Posts 706
19 Apr 2012 18:50


If "area" is exhausted, use "volume" and stack chips. Not that it hasn't been done on a regular basis already ;) .

Jakob Eriksson
Sweden
(Moderator)
Posts 1097
19 Apr 2012 18:59


EXTERNAL LINK

Gone Gahgah
Australia

Posts 237
19 Apr 2012 23:52


The most compact form of stacking would be tetrahedrons wouldn't it?
Vertical stacking allows 6 possible connections from any one point.  Tetrahedral stacking allows 18 possible connections from any one point.  Tetrahedral stacking would be slightly denser and allow more intricate circuits?

Nixus Minimax
Germany

Posts 273
20 Apr 2012 08:52


Claudio Wieland wrote:

If "area" is exhausted, use "volume" and stack chips.

That isn't quite the same. If you really want to have more than one layer of transistors on a chip, you will need epitaxial growth to add further layers. The problem is that such layers tend to be more uneven than the Rocky Mountains in comparison to transistor dimensions. Stacking of chips has been done but this is very costly and usually more of a way to save chip housing, PCB space and to decrease parasitic capacitances in the interconnection.


Claudio Wieland
Germany
(Natami Team)
Posts 706
20 Apr 2012 18:29


I think epitaxial growth of additional transistor layers is out of the picture, as you described. Stacking Dies still is not the big mainstream technique, but what else remains?

Marcel Verdaasdonk
Netherlands

Posts 3979
20 Apr 2012 21:26


Stacking IC packages a modified BGA is up for this task.

Wojtek P
Poland

Posts 1597
04 May 2012 19:22


Chuck T wrote:

FPGAs have always been expensive, whether in a small scale (handfuls of dollars for low-end parts) to astronomical - one can get a nice car for less than the cost of high-end device. Literally. So they�ve occupied markets that can tolerate a bit, or a lot, more money in exchange for the convenience of programmability. The conventional thinking has always held that for high volume applications one uses an ASIC.
   
    That thinking is now obsolete.
   
    ASICs have long been natural choices for high-volume products. But as process geometries shrink the design costs have skyrocketed. One analysis claims that at 28 nm only products that ship billions of units can profitably use an ASIC
   
     
     
      EXTERNAL LINK 

Who require you to design 28nm ASIC?

Full startup (complete mask sets etc) for 90nm designs today are in order of 200000$. Test-runs (shared mask) are in order of 10000$, depends of IC size.

Hell lot but if you can sell 50000 pieces (this is medium volume) for 20$  you still can earn a lot.

finally wafer processing costs are lower on that nodes (below $3000 per wafer), device parameters variability is lower and speed not that different.

For small sized IC (still like million of gates in 90nm process) you can fit in 1$/chip production costs.

So what a problem?

There are lot of digital chips produced now and designed now for 90nm or even 180-250nm nodes!!

Some even produce billions of "outdated" technology chips.

see EXTERNAL LINK 
Microcontroller manufacturer that buys out "outdated" fabs and then
produce enormous amount of microcontrollers.

Actually shrinking geometry below current 22nm process (intel terminology, actually 40-45nm half-pitch) doesn't make any logical sense, but will be 2-3 generations more done to show up on market.

Shrinking DRAM feature size more make sense. DRAM chips by definition are billion-volume products, and getting to smaller geometries are far cheaper as DRAM structures are repetitive.


Wojtek P
Poland

Posts 1597
04 May 2012 19:26


Nixus Minimax wrote:

Chuck T wrote:
But as process geometries shrink the design costs have skyrocketed.

 
  Well, with shrinking process geometries you can fit more chips on a wafer and thus produce the same number of chips with less wafer starts, i.e. faster and cheaper. There are two effects having opposite directions but yes, it seems that the process costs go up faster than the savings.
  thick. Perhaps less than 10 nm channel length will be possible, but then there really is hardly anything more to shrink.
 

25nm (half-pitch, probably 10-15nm in intel terminology) is the edge of common sense.

DRAM may go below 10nm half-pitch.

FLASH are already on dead end. you may make them smaller but endurance falls exponentially. FLASH is only great for reprogrammable large read-only storage.

SSD "disks" are good for read-mostly workload. Newer SSD will tolerate few times less writes.


Wojtek P
Poland

Posts 1597
04 May 2012 19:27


Marcel Verdaasdonk wrote:

Stacking IC packages a modified BGA is up for this task.

But the main question is why do it?

Putting a little more brain on problem is smarter than putting 10 billion more transistors.

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